Generic Market Forecasting

Industry	Pharmaceutical Manufacturer
Problem	The client faced the Loss of Exclusivity (LOE) of a branded product. The client desired a forecast of the expected pharmacy acquisition cost for the generic product based on the number of manufacturers expected to launch a generic. The client also sought a review of brand LOE analogs with similar generic launches as a basis for the forecast.
PHSI Solution	PHSI developed a math model using current pricing data and algorithms to show a side by side comparison with various industry stakeholder financial perspectives of the brand product, a current brand competitor, and generic product as expected at time of launch.
Results	PHSI provided the client with expected price of the generic product coming to market at LOE under different scenarios, such as one generic with 180 days exclusivity, one generic plus an Authorized Generic, and generic post exclusivity with multiple generic competitors. This forecast provided the manufacturer with insight on how to approach industry stakeholders after LOE with pricing and/or rebate offers allowing them to continue to generate sales in the face of the generic competition.